An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

不同水位和竞争模式对典型湿地植物生态化学计量特征的影响     

李旭  于洁  李峰  胡聪  曾静  侯志勇  谢永宏  陈心胜 《湖泊科学》2019,31(6):1651-1661

以洞庭湖典型湿地植物辣蓼为目标植物,短尖苔草为邻近植物,通过控制实验研究不同水位(30、0和-30 cm)和竞争(无竞争、全部竞争、地上竞争和地下竞争)模式下目标植物生长及生态化学计量特征的变化.结果表明:水位处理显著影响不同竞争模式下的生物量积累,辣蓼生物量随水位增加显著降低;-30 cm水位无竞争模式下生物量最大,为10.84±1.52 g.在30 cm和0 cm水位梯度下,不同竞争模式下的生物量间无显著差异.但-30 cm水位下,地下竞争模式下的辣蓼生物量积累较全竞争模式和地上竞争模式下显著增多,说明非胁迫条件下,辣蓼和苔草的竞争以地上竞争为主.水位处理对辣蓼叶片、茎和根的氮、磷含量影响显著,30 cm水位下,叶片氮、磷含量显著高于其他水位下的含量.在-30cm水位下,叶片C∶N和C∶P显著高于其他水位下的比值,分别为48.08±3.85、590.3±43.4.相比于对照处理(无竞争),竞争作用下的辣蓼总氮含量降低,而C∶N值增加,N∶P值降低,这可能是因为竞争作用导致辣蓼对氮的吸收减少所致.  相似文献   

A 10-year wave energy resource assessment and trends of Indonesia based on satellite observations     

Amiruddin  Ribal Agustinus  Khaeruddin  Thamrin Sri Astuti 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(8):86-93

Wave energy resource assessment and trends around Indonesian's ocean has been carried out by means of analyzing satellite observations. Wave energy flux or wave power can be approximated using parameterized sea states derived from satellite data. Unfortunately, only some surface parameters can be measured from remote sensing satellites, for example for ocean surface waves: significant wave height. Others, like peak wave period and energy period are not available, but can instead be estimated using empirical models. The results have been assessed by meteorological season. The assessment shows clearly where and when the wave power resource is promising around Indonesian's ocean. The most striking result was found from June to August, in which about 30–40 kW/m(the 90 th percentile: 40–60 kW/m, the 99th percentile: 50–70 kW/m) wave power energy on average has been found around south of the Java Island. The significant trends of wave energy at the 95% level have also been studied and it is found that the trends only occurred for the extreme cases, which is the 99th percentile(i.e.,highest 1%). Wave power energy could increase up to 150 W/m per year. The significant wave heights and wave power have been compared with the results obtained from global wave model hindcast carried out by wave model WAVEWATCH III. The comparisons indicated excellent agreements.  相似文献   

海州湾4种鱼类生长特征的空间异质性     

王琨  张崇良  王晶  任一平 《海洋学报》2019,41(12):62-70

传统的渔业资源评估均假设鱼类的生长参数是匀质的，然而近年来越来越多的研究表明海洋鱼类生长存在空间异质性。为探究海州湾鱼类生长参数的空间异质性现象，本研究分析了2013–2018年海州湾及其邻近海域方氏云鳚(Pholis fangi)、尖海龙(Syngnatus acus)、小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)和赤鼻棱鳀(Thryssa kammalensis)的空间分布，使用电子体长频率分析方法结合Bootstrap重抽样方法估算了这4种鱼类的生长参数及其在深、浅水区域中的差异。结果显示，这4种鱼类生长参数均表现出一定的空间异质性，其中尖海龙和小黄鱼生长参数的空间异质性表现较为明显。这种差异可能是由于空间上的理化条件、群落结构以及物种本身洄游分布的差异而产生的。  相似文献   

九孔鲍MSTN基因cSNP多态性及与生长性状关联分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

艾加林  栗志民  刘建勇  申玉春 《热带海洋学报》2019,38(2):78-85

九孔鲍(Haliotis diversicolor supertexta)是中国南方具有较高经济价值的养殖贝类。肌肉生长抑制素(Myostatin, MSTN)是转化生长因子β超家族(TGF-β)中参与动物肌肉生长的重要调控因子, 因此MSTN基因是动物遗传改良的重要候选基因。为探究九孔鲍MSTN基因的多态性及其生长相关性, 实验采用PCR产物直接测序方法对九孔鲍MSTN基因进行单核苷酸多态性(SNP)筛选, 对MSTN基因SNP与体质量、壳长、壳宽进行关联性分析, 运用实时荧光定量PCR (qRT-PCR)技术检测九孔鲍MSTN基因不同基因型的表达水平。结果显示: 在九孔鲍MSTN基因中共筛选出9个SNP位点。SNP位点与生长性状关联分析发现, 九孔鲍MSTN基因编码区SNP位点g909C>T发生C/T同义突变与九孔鲍体质量、壳长、壳宽显著相关。TT基因型九孔鲍的体质量显著高于CC基因型和TC基因型个体; TT基因型的壳长、壳宽显著高于CC基因型(p<0.05)。通过qRT-PCR检测显示, 在九孔鲍MSTN基因SNP位点g909C>T的3种基因型中, TC和CC基因型的基因表达量显著高于TT基因型(p<0.05)。研究结果表明MSTN基因SNP位点g909C>T可作为九孔鲍标记辅助选择育种重要候选标记。  相似文献   

The Cabo Frio upwelling overrides geographical patterns in the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris Spence Bate, 1888 (Decapoda: Penaeidae)     

Abner Carvalho‐Batista  Joo Alberto Farinelli Pantaleo  Antonio Leo Castilho  Rogrio Caetano da Costa 《Marine Ecology》2019,40(2)

Upwelling areas are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet, influencing the biology of marine organisms. This study investigated the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris in two regions in southeastern Brazil, one inside (Macaé—Rio de Janeiro State) and one outside (Ubatuba—State of São Paulo) the Cabo Frio upwelling area. The aim was to verify the influence of the upwelling phenomenon on the abundance, growth, longevity, size of sexual maturity, and reproductive period of the species. In total, 188,902 individuals were captured at Macaé and 3,461 at Ubatuba. Individuals captured at Macaé showed larger maximum size, higher longevity, and slower growth rate, besides reaching sexual maturity at larger sizes than at Ubatuba. Continuous reproduction was observed in both regions, with juvenile recruitment peaks in spring and summer. Local conditions observed at Macaé were influenced by the Cabo Frio upwelling zone, characterized by productive and cooler waters that are around 20°C during most of the year. The upwelling phenomenon is probably the main factor influencing the population parameters studied here, changing the geographic patterns previously observed for the variation of these parameters in A. longinaris.  相似文献   

Non-normality increases variance of gravity waves trapped in a tilted box     

U. Harlander  I. D. Borcia  A. Krebs 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2019,113(5-6):602-622

  相似文献   

2012年唐山4.8级地震强震动记录特征及场地相关特性分析     

齐玉妍  孙丽娜  吕国军  李慧 《地震》2019,39(4):172-180

2012年5月28日河北省唐山市古冶区与滦县交界发生4.8级地震, 国家强震动台网中心在河北、 天津和北京的94个强震动台站记录到了本次地震的加速度。 本文给出了获取记录的强震动台站分布及强震动记录结果, 统计了强震动记录数量随震中距的变化, 给出了3个较小震中距台站记录到的加速度时程; 绘制了空间地震动峰值加速度等值线图及周期0.2 s、 2.0 s加速度反应谱值的等值线, 发现峰值加速度等值线与长周期加速度反应谱等值线极值分布具有明显地域差异, 分析认为是由于厚沉积层对长周期地震动具有放大作用造成的。 通过强震动记录与适用于本区的三个衰减关系对比, 分析了此次地震的峰值加速度衰减特征, 同时研究了周期0.2 s、 2.0 s加速度反应谱值的衰减特征, 周期2.0 s反应谱值随震中距的衰减与衰减关系能较好地对应, 然而在震中距100～130 km沉积层较厚的集中地区, 表现出了实际记录较衰减关系值偏大的现象, 认为同样是由于厚沉积层对地震动加速度反应谱长周期的放大作用导致的。 研究了震中距差别不大的情况下, 场地类型与沉积层厚度对反应谱特征周期的影响, 对比基岩台站与软弱地基土层台站的强震动记录反应谱, 发现软弱土层台站的土层对地震动有一定的放大作用, 导致中长周期地震动被放大, 对比位于沉积层较薄的隆起区台站与位于沉积层较厚的凹陷区台站强震动记录反应谱, 发现厚的沉积层不仅对反应谱长周期有放大的作用, 同时也会使得反应谱特征周期值变大。  相似文献   

紫刺参早期生长发育与体色形成的研究     

陈相堂  赵斌  李成林  韩莎  胡炜 《海洋科学》2019,43(6):95-101

本研究对紫刺参胚胎和幼体发育过程进行了显微观测,比较分析了其幼体早期生长情况与体色形成过程。结果表明:(1)在水温21.0±0.2℃条件下,紫刺参受精卵在受精10～15min后释放第一极体,5h 30min～6h 30min进入囊胚期, 18～20h发育成原肠胚; 30～34h进入耳状幼体阶段, 8～10d变态发育为樽形幼体, 12～14d发育成稚参;紫刺参胚胎和幼体发育时序与普通刺参无显著差异。(2)紫刺参早期发育中的樽形幼体发生率和附着变态率分别为58.4±4.7%和45.1±2.7%,高于普通刺参。(3)紫刺参浮游阶段后期随日龄增长表现出较普通刺参发育更快的优势,在日龄6～7d表现出显著差异(P0.05)。(4)紫刺参稚参在日龄35d前后自背部开始着色,50d～60d腹部开始着色,110d体表紫色转变近乎成参体色,完成变色过程。  相似文献   

大西洋鲑在封闭循环水养殖模式下的生长和性腺发育研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

徐世宏  王彦丰  刘清华  刘鹰  王顺奎  徐滢轩  李军 《海洋科学》2019,43(11):97-102

本研究探讨了在封闭循环水养殖模式下大西洋鲑(Salmosalar)的生长发育模式,对封闭循环水系统养殖的大西洋鲑重要生长数量性状进行生物学测量,并跟踪性腺发育状况。本研究自2012年1月通过封闭循环水系统进行大西洋鲑养殖,经过周年养殖,体质量平均达到1194.42g,体长平均达到417.00 mm,体高平均达到100.58 mm,体宽平均达到53.52 mm,少数个体在养殖10个月后性腺发育较快,性腺质量达到9.76 g,性腺指数达到1.31%。本研究的研究结果为建立大西洋鲑标准化循环水养殖系统积累资料。  相似文献